Shareable intelligence

Botswana

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Southern Africa

Botswana

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$7,778 2025	$6,415 – $11,121	$5,464 – $14,981
Electricity access	80% 2024	86% – 91%	89% – 94%
Internet use	57% 2024	64% – 72%	69% – 79%

Growth bands: -3.16% · 1.49% · 6.14% a year per person, from Botswana's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Educated young people whose qualifications do not convert into work
Households already spending most of their income on food
rural households, 34 points behind on electricity in 2024 — a gap that closes last in every scenario here because access improves fastest where it is already highest

2031 versus 2036 · Botswana

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 80.2% of the population (2024) to between 86% and 91% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 88% — a rise of 7.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 339,404 would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 167,896 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 57.5% of the population (2024) to between 64% and 72% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 68% — a rise of 10.1 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 908,816 would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 181,123 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $6,415 to $11,121 by 2031. The $4,706 between them is wider than half today's $7,778.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 2.8 million — roughly 242,867 more people than in 2025, about 1.8 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 80.2% of the population (2024) to between 89% and 94% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 92% — a rise of 11.3 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 254,161 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 253,139 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 57.5% of the population (2024) to between 69% and 79% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 73% — a rise of 15.8 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 798,366 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 291,573 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $5,464 to $14,981 by 2036. The $9,517 between them is wider than half today's $7,778.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 3 million — roughly 428,013 more people than in 2025, about 2 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 6.1% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 10.4% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Botswana

Food & water systems

Material — Could push the outcome outside the modelled band.

Undernourishment affected 24% of the population in 2023, with food 16% of merchandise imports (2023).

Why the band cannot contain it

Food security is a function of income and logistics as much as of harvests. Food usually exists in the region and cannot affordably be moved — a distribution failure that output data does not describe.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A regional harvest failure, or a change in the affordability of food imports.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Botswana

5 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Botswana. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

1 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

5 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Botswana · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels