Shareable intelligence

Côte d'Ivoire

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Western Africa

Côte d'Ivoire

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$3,050 2025	$3,111 – $4,461	$3,163 – $6,123
Electricity access	73% 2024	77% – 81%	79% – 85%
Internet use	41% 2024	52% – 62%	58% – 73%

Growth bands: 0.33% · 3.44% · 6.54% a year per person, from Côte d'Ivoire's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

A cohort that reaches working age faster than jobs, training places or clinics are built
Rain-fed farming households, first and hardest, in a bad season
Off-grid communities, whose wait lengthens if capital concentrates on urban and industrial load

2031 versus 2036 · Côte d'Ivoire

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 72.9% of the population (2024) to between 77% and 81% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 79% — a rise of 5.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 8 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 833,545 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 41.4% of the population (2024) to between 52% and 62% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 57% — a rise of 15.1 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 16.3 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 2.8 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $3,111 to $4,461 by 2031. The $1,350 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $3,050.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 37.5 million — roughly 4.8 million more people than in 2025, about 22.2 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 72.9% of the population (2024) to between 79% and 85% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 82% — a rise of 9.1 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 7.6 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 1.3 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 41.4% of the population (2024) to between 58% and 73% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 65% — a rise of 23.3 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 14.8 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 4.4 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $3,163 to $6,123 by 2036. The $2,960 between them is wider than half today's $3,050.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 41.9 million — roughly 9.2 million more people than in 2025, about 25.4 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

Côte d'Ivoire is the western endpoint of the Abidjan–Lagos Corridor Highway, a roughly 1,028–1,081 km coastal motorway estimated…. Recorded as approved: it still has to reach financial close before it counts as capacity.
An April 2026 AfDB and ECOWAS investment mission consolidated over 200 proposals into 26 priority projects across transport…. Recorded as announced: it still has to be formally approved before it counts as money in motion.
MTN Côte d’Ivoire and ALX signed a partnership on 3 July 2026 to train 100,000 Ivorians aged 18 to 35 in artificial intelligence…. Recorded as announced: it still has to be enacted or formally adopted before it counts as a change in how things work.

What the growth model cannot see · Côte d'Ivoire

Sovereign debt & fiscal distress

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Central government debt was 171% of GDP in 1995, against revenue of 13%. At this ratio debt service competes directly with schools, clinics and salaries, and refinancing terms — set abroad — become a domestic policy constraint.

Why the band cannot contain it

A default is a discontinuity. Trailing variance cannot contain an event that has not yet occurred, and debt service crowds out the spending that produces future growth long before any default.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A missed sovereign payment, a disorderly restructuring, or loss of market access. None of these appear in a trailing growth average until after the fact.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Côte d'Ivoire

10 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

2 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Côte d'Ivoire. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

5 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

5 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

4 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

4 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

2 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Côte d'Ivoire · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels