Shareable intelligence

Comoros

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Eastern Africa

Comoros

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$2,056 2025	$2,029 – $2,295	$2,007 – $2,515
Electricity access	92% 2024	95% – 98%	97% – 99%
Internet use	33% 2024	42% – 52%	47% – 62%

Growth bands: -0.22% · 0.82% · 1.85% a year per person, from Comoros's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Rural, older, poorer and less literate people, who are last in every connectivity sequence
Families one illness away from selling productive assets
Households already spending most of their income on food

2031 versus 2036 · Comoros

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 91.7% of the population (2024) to between 95% and 98% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 97% — a rise of 4.8 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 34,327 would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 38,949 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 32.5% of the population (2024) to between 42% and 52% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 46% — a rise of 13.5 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 529,619 would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 66,149 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $2,029 to $2,295 by 2031. The $266 between them is under a quarter of today's $2,056.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 980,775 — roughly 97,928 more people than in 2025, about 592,931 of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 91.7% of the population (2024) to between 97% and 99% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 98% — a rise of 6.4 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 20,232 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 53,044 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 32.5% of the population (2024) to between 47% and 62% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 54% — a rise of 21.4 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 490,896 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 104,871 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $2,007 to $2,515 by 2036. The $508 between them is under a quarter of today's $2,056.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 1.1 million — roughly 182,004 more people than in 2025, about 658,038 of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 1.9% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 2.4% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Comoros

Institutional capacity & regulatory reform

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Government effectiveness scored -1.2 in 2024, regulatory quality -1.2. On these perception-based measures, delivery capacity is the constraint that binds the others: the plans may be sound and still not arrive.

Why the band cannot contain it

Implementation capacity is what separates an announced plan from a delivered one. It is the single largest reason infrastructure pipelines across this continent under-deliver, and it is invisible in output data.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A change of government that materially alters delivery capacity, in either direction.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Comoros

4 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

4 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Comoros. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

3 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

1 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

5 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

4 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Comoros · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels