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Djibouti

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Eastern Africa

Djibouti

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$3,906 2025	$4,601 – $5,407	$5,275 – $7,090
Electricity access	69% 2024	73% – 77%	75% – 82%
Internet use	65% 2024	76% – 85%	82% – 92%

Growth bands: 2.77% · 4.17% · 5.57% a year per person, from Djibouti's own 12-year record (2014–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Educated young people whose qualifications do not convert into work
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess
Off-grid communities, whose wait lengthens if capital concentrates on urban and industrial load

2031 versus 2036 · Djibouti

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 69.2% of the population (2024) to between 73% and 77% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 75% — a rise of 5.6 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 322,140 would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 42,556 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 65.3% of the population (2024) to between 76% and 85% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 81% — a rise of 15.4 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 246,718 would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 164,169 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $4,601 to $5,407 by 2031. The $806 between them is under a quarter of today's $3,906.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 1.3 million — roughly 94,256 more people than in 2025, about 857,474 of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 69.2% of the population (2024) to between 75% and 82% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 78% — a rise of 9 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 294,159 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 70,536 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 65.3% of the population (2024) to between 82% and 92% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 87% — a rise of 21.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 175,416 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 235,471 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $5,275 to $7,090 by 2036. The $1,815 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $3,906.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 1.3 million — roughly 165,279 more people than in 2025, about 904,486 of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

A presidential election was expected in April 2026, unconfirmed at the time of review. Currently uncertain. Nothing downstream of it can be assumed while it stays that way.
For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 5.6% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 5.6% — but has not sustained it across the 12-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Djibouti

Education & workforce capability

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Gross tertiary enrolment was 5.2% in 2011. A state cannot regulate, procure, audit or localise technologies it has too few people trained to understand. This constrains AI governance, energy planning and public administration simultaneously, and it takes a decade to change — which is exactly this platform's horizon.

Why the band cannot contain it

Human capital compounds on a decade lag. The tertiary enrolment rate today sets the ceiling on what the state can regulate and what firms can build in 2036, and no growth average encodes that.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A sustained collapse or expansion in enrolment, or large-scale emigration of trained professionals.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Djibouti

5 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

4 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Djibouti. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

3 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

2 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

4 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

4 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Djibouti · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels