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Ethiopia

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Eastern Africa

Ethiopia

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$933 2025	$1,190 – $1,424	$1,459 – $2,027
Electricity access	57% 2024	66% – 75%	71% – 83%
Internet use	22% 2024	28% – 35%	32% – 42%

Growth bands: 4.15% · 5.73% · 7.31% a year per person, from Ethiopia's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

A cohort that reaches working age faster than jobs, training places or clinics are built
Rain-fed farming households, first and hardest, in a bad season
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess

2031 versus 2036 · Ethiopia

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 56.6% of the population (2024) to between 66% and 75% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 70% — a rise of 13.2 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 47.2 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 11.6 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 21.9% of the population (2024) to between 28% and 35% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 31% — a rise of 8.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 108.5 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 2.8 million more than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $1,190 to $1,424 by 2031. The $234 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $933.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 156.4 million — roughly 20.9 million more people than in 2025, about 92.2 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 56.6% of the population (2024) to between 71% and 83% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 77% — a rise of 20.1 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 40.6 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 18.2 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 21.9% of the population (2024) to between 32% and 42% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 36% — a rise of 14.2 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 111.2 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 5.5 million more than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $1,459 to $2,027 by 2036. The $568 between them is wider than half today's $933.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 174.1 million — roughly 38.6 million more people than in 2025, about 105.3 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

Ethiopia has made significant progress with its sovereign debt restructuring, according to IMF commentary. Recorded as approved: it still has to be funded and staffed before it counts as a change in how things work.
Ethiopia is identified among African states that have developed and begun implementing a national AI strategy. Recorded as approved: it still has to be funded and staffed before it counts as a change in how things work.
Ethiopia’s stated policy is universal health coverage by 2030 against an 80% UHC index target, set out in the Health Sector…. Recorded as announced: it still has to be enacted or formally adopted before it counts as a change in how things work.

What the growth model cannot see · Ethiopia

Political instability & conflict

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Political stability scored -1.9 in 2024, in the lowest band of the Worldwide Governance Indicators, with 2.4 million people internally displaced (2025). The distance between scenarios here is set by whether the security situation holds, not by economic policy. The modelled band, drawn from recent economic history, does not describe what further deterioration would mean.

Why the band cannot contain it

Conflict does not appear in a trailing growth average until after it has already happened. A country at peace for fifteen years has no war in its variance.

What would invalidate the modelled band

Onset or escalation of armed conflict. The modelled band is drawn from economic history and contains no war; if this occurs, disregard the quantitative path entirely.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Ethiopia

10 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Ethiopia. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

6 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

2 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

5 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Ethiopia · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels