Shareable intelligence

Kenya

5 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Eastern Africa

Kenya

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$2,363 2025	$2,523 – $2,962	$2,665 – $3,576
Electricity access	77% 2024	86% – 92%	90% – 96%
Internet use	35% 2024	42% – 50%	46% – 58%

Growth bands: 1.1% · 2.47% · 3.84% a year per person, from Kenya's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Rain-fed farming households, first and hardest, in a bad season
Educated young people whose qualifications do not convert into work
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess

2031 versus 2036 · Kenya

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 77% of the population (2024) to between 86% and 92% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 89% — a rise of 11.8 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 7.2 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 6 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 35% of the population (2024) to between 42% and 50% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 45% — a rise of 10.4 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 35.1 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 2.3 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $2,523 to $2,962 by 2031. The $439 between them is under a quarter of today's $2,363.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 64.2 million — roughly 6.7 million more people than in 2025, about 40.2 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 77% of the population (2024) to between 90% and 96% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 93% — a rise of 16.3 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 4.7 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 8.6 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 35% of the population (2024) to between 46% and 58% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 52% — a rise of 16.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 33.7 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 3.7 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $2,665 to $3,576 by 2036. The $911 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $2,363.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 69.8 million — roughly 12.3 million more people than in 2025, about 44.2 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

The Masakhane African Languages Hub was established in July 2025 and opened a grant programme to fund dataset development for 50…. Recorded as funded: it still has to be implemented rather than merely resourced before it counts as a change in how things work.
Kenya's National AI Strategy was launched in March 2025, and Kenya is noted for the scale and financing of its rollout plan. Recorded as approved: it still has to be funded and staffed before it counts as a change in how things work.
The Creative Economy Support Bill (Senate Bill No. 30 of 2024) is before the Kenyan Parliament and would establish a statutory…. Recorded as proposed: it still has to attract financing before it counts as money in motion.

What the growth model cannot see · Kenya

Climate exposure & disaster risk

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

641,000 new displacements from disasters were recorded in 2023. Freshwater withdrawals stood at 33% of renewable resources (2022). 46% of employment is in agriculture (2025). Climate is not an environmental topic here — it is the household income of most of the workforce, and a bad season is a nationwide wage cut.

Why the band cannot contain it

Climate impact is non-linear and arrives as discrete events. A decade of trailing growth contains the droughts that happened, not the ones now becoming more likely.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A multi-season drought or a major flood event affecting the main producing regions. Discrete climate events are outside any band built from recent averages.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Kenya

12 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

1 dimension has not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Kenya. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

8 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

2 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

5 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

1 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Creative & cultural intelligence · Kenya

Cross-sector / whole creative economy

Measured as Creative industries — cultural industries plus design, advertising, architecture and often software.

The Creative Economy Support Bill (Senate Bill No. 30 of 2024) is before the Kenyan Parliament and would establish a statutory framework for the creative sector, including a support fund, a credit guarantee scheme, a creative voucher system and recognition of prior learning for self-taught practitioners.

Limits of this figure

A Bill is not a law. The text is published by Parliament and its existence is verified; its passage, commencement date and funding are not. The Bill has attracted public criticism over proposed levies and content take-down powers, so the enacted text may differ materially from the one recorded here.

Creative-economy figures are the most definition-sensitive numbers on this platform: the same country measured under a different frame can differ by a factor of three. Continental totals are held separately and are never attached to a country.

Source: The Creative Economy Support Bill (Senate Bill No. 30 of 2024) — Parliament of Kenya, 2024 · primary · verified 2026-07-25

Full brief for Kenya · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels