Shareable intelligence

Rwanda

5 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Eastern Africa

Rwanda

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$1,124 2025	$1,268 – $1,712	$1,402 – $2,432
Electricity access	72% 2024	83% – 91%	88% – 96%
Internet use	32% 2024	40% – 48%	45% – 58%

Growth bands: 2.03% · 4.65% · 7.27% a year per person, from Rwanda's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Educated young people whose qualifications do not convert into work
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess
Off-grid communities, whose wait lengthens if capital concentrates on urban and industrial load

2031 versus 2036 · Rwanda

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 72% of the population (2024) to between 83% and 91% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 87% — a rise of 14.6 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 2.2 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 1.9 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 31.7% of the population (2024) to between 40% and 48% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 43% — a rise of 11.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 9.3 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 626,600 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $1,268 to $1,712 by 2031. The $444 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $1,124.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 16.5 million — roughly 1.9 million more people than in 2025, about 10 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 72% of the population (2024) to between 88% and 96% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 92% — a rise of 20.1 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 1.4 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 2.7 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 31.7% of the population (2024) to between 45% and 58% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 50% — a rise of 18.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 9 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 984,298 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $1,402 to $2,432 by 2036. The $1,030 between them is wider than half today's $1,124.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 18.1 million — roughly 3.5 million more people than in 2025, about 11.2 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

Rwanda has published a national AI strategy. Recorded as approved: it still has to be funded and staffed before it counts as a change in how things work.
The African Development Bank issued a request for expressions of interest in 2024 for a feasibility study to design a national…. Recorded as approved: it still has to reach financial close before it counts as money in motion.
For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 7.3% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 7.6% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Rwanda

Education & workforce capability

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Gross tertiary enrolment was 9.4% in 2024, with adult literacy at 79% (2022). A state cannot regulate, procure, audit or localise technologies it has too few people trained to understand. This constrains AI governance, energy planning and public administration simultaneously, and it takes a decade to change — which is exactly this platform's horizon.

Why the band cannot contain it

Human capital compounds on a decade lag. The tertiary enrolment rate today sets the ceiling on what the state can regulate and what firms can build in 2036, and no growth average encodes that.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A sustained collapse or expansion in enrolment, or large-scale emigration of trained professionals.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Rwanda

7 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Rwanda. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

3 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

5 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

5 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Creative & cultural intelligence · Rwanda

Cross-sector / whole creative economy

Measured as A financing or policy programme envelope, not a measure of sector size.

The African Development Bank issued a request for expressions of interest in 2024 for a feasibility study to design a national creative economy programme for Rwanda, covering film, fashion, music and visual arts.

Limits of this figure

This is a procurement notice for a study, not a programme, and not a measurement of Rwanda’s creative economy. No published figure for the size of Rwanda’s creative sector was found that meets this platform’s standard.

Creative-economy figures are the most definition-sensitive numbers on this platform: the same country measured under a different frame can differ by a factor of three. Continental totals are held separately and are never attached to a country.

Source: Request for Expressions of Interest — Feasibility Study for the Design and Development of Rwanda’s Creative Economy — African Development Bank Group, 2024-05 · primary · verified 2026-07-25

Full brief for Rwanda · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels