Shareable intelligence

Senegal

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Western Africa

Senegal

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$1,955 2025	$2,029 – $2,455	$2,092 – $2,968
Electricity access	83% 2024	88% – 93%	91% – 96%
Internet use	60% 2024	71% – 81%	77% – 88%

Growth bands: 0.62% · 2.24% · 3.87% a year per person, from Senegal's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Families one illness away from selling productive assets
rural households, 16 points behind on electricity in 2024 — a gap that closes last in every scenario here because access improves fastest where it is already highest

2031 versus 2036 · Senegal

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 82.9% of the population (2024) to between 88% and 93% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 90% — a rise of 7.5 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 2.1 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 1.2 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 60.1% of the population (2024) to between 71% and 81% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 76% — a rise of 15.5 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 5.3 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 2.3 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $2,029 to $2,455 by 2031. The $426 between them is under a quarter of today's $1,955.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 21.6 million — roughly 2.7 million more people than in 2025, about 13.1 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 82.9% of the population (2024) to between 91% and 96% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 94% — a rise of 10.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 1.5 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 1.7 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 60.1% of the population (2024) to between 77% and 88% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 83% — a rise of 22.5 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 4.2 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 3.4 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $2,092 to $2,968 by 2036. The $876 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $1,955.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 23.9 million — roughly 5 million more people than in 2025, about 14.7 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

Senegal is noted alongside Kenya for the scale and financing of its national AI strategy rollout plan. Recorded as approved: it still has to be funded and staffed before it counts as a change in how things work.
Senegal launched the New Deal Technologique, a ten-year national digital strategy running to a 2034 horizon and structured around…. Recorded as approved: it still has to be funded and staffed before it counts as a change in how things work.
One year after launch, Senegal held a high-level event on 24 March 2026 marking the start of the New Deal Technologique flagship…. Recorded as approved: it still has to be funded and staffed before it counts as a change in how things work.

What the growth model cannot see · Senegal

Population pressure & the youth cohort

Material — Could push the outcome outside the modelled band.

Population is projected to rise 23.6% by 2036 (19.4 million → 23.9 million). Services, housing and jobs must expand at that pace before any improvement in living standards registers.

Why the band cannot contain it

Per-capita growth already nets out population, which hides the absolute scale of what must be built. A constant GDP per capita with a doubling population means twice the schools for the same living standard.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A significant revision to the UN World Population Prospects for this country. The population path here is carried through unchanged and is the least uncertain input on the page.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Senegal

8 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Senegal. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

4 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

3 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

6 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Senegal · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels