Shareable intelligence

South Sudan

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Eastern Africa

South Sudan

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$1,080 2015	$401 – $3,385	$295 – $4,837
Electricity access	5% 2024	6% – 7%	6% – 7%
Internet use	7% 2019	12% – 19%	14% – 23%

Growth bands: -6% · -6% · 7.4% a year per person, from South Sudan's own 7-year record (2009–2015) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Rain-fed farming households, first and hardest, in a bad season
Educated young people whose qualifications do not convert into work
Off-grid communities, whose wait lengthens if capital concentrates on urban and industrial load

2031 versus 2036 · South Sudan

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Internet use moves from 6.7% of the population (2019) to between 12% and 19% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 15% — a rise of 8.2 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 11.7 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 304,652 more than in 2019, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $401 to $3,385 by 2031. The $2,984 between them is wider than half today's $1,080.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 13.7 million — roughly 1.5 million more people than in 2025, about 8.5 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Internet use moves from 6.7% of the population (2019) to between 14% and 23% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 18% — a rise of 11.4 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 12.3 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 966,734 more than in 2019, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $295 to $4,837 by 2036. The $4,542 between them is wider than half today's $1,080.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 15.1 million — roughly 2.9 million more people than in 2025, about 9.3 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 7.4% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 9.4% — but has not sustained it across the 7-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · South Sudan

Climate exposure & disaster risk

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

167,000 new displacements from disasters were recorded in 2023. Freshwater withdrawals stood at 4% of renewable resources (2022). 64% of employment is in agriculture (2023). Climate is not an environmental topic here — it is the household income of most of the workforce, and a bad season is a nationwide wage cut.

Why the band cannot contain it

Climate impact is non-linear and arrives as discrete events. A decade of trailing growth contains the droughts that happened, not the ones now becoming more likely.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A multi-season drought or a major flood event affecting the main producing regions. Discrete climate events are outside any band built from recent averages.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · South Sudan

5 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

5 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about South Sudan. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

3 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

2 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

3 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

5 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for South Sudan · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels