Shareable intelligence

Tunisia

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Northern Africa

Tunisia

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$4,657 2025	$4,040 – $5,573	$3,589 – $6,473
Electricity access	100% 2024	100% – 100%	100% – 100%
Internet use	77% 2024	84% – 90%	87% – 94%

Growth bands: -2.34% · 0.35% · 3.04% a year per person, from Tunisia's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Educated young people whose qualifications do not convert into work
Irrigating farmers and cities drawing on the same stressed sources
young people already outside work at 38.1% in 2025, in a labour market the projections grow but do not restructure

2031 versus 2036 · Tunisia

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access is already 100% (2024). It is not where this country's 2031 is decided.
Internet use moves from 76.5% of the population (2024) to between 84% and 90% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 86% — a rise of 9.9 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 1.7 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 1.2 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $4,040 to $5,573 by 2031. The $1,533 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $4,657.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 12.7 million — roughly 321,348 more people than in 2025, about 8.6 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access is already 100% (2024). It is not where this country's 2036 is decided.
Internet use moves from 76.5% of the population (2024) to between 87% and 94% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 91% — a rise of 14 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 1.2 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 1.7 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $3,589 to $6,473 by 2036. The $2,884 between them is wider than half today's $4,657.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 12.8 million — roughly 493,918 more people than in 2025, about 8.7 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 3% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 4.1% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Tunisia

Political instability & conflict

Material — Could push the outcome outside the modelled band.

Political stability scored -0.9 in 2024. Instability at this level can move the outcome outside the modelled band in either direction, depending on whether it consolidates or spreads.

Why the band cannot contain it

Conflict does not appear in a trailing growth average until after it has already happened. A country at peace for fifteen years has no war in its variance.

What would invalidate the modelled band

Onset or escalation of armed conflict. The modelled band is drawn from economic history and contains no war; if this occurs, disregard the quantitative path entirely.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Tunisia

5 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Tunisia. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

1 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

5 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Tunisia · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels