Shareable intelligence

Uganda

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Eastern Africa

Uganda

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$1,206 2025	$1,249 – $1,481	$1,286 – $1,757
Electricity access	55% 2024	66% – 76%	72% – 84%
Internet use	9% 2024	11% – 13%	12% – 15%

Growth bands: 0.58% · 2.03% · 3.48% a year per person, from Uganda's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

A cohort that reaches working age faster than jobs, training places or clinics are built
Rain-fed farming households, first and hardest, in a bad season
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess

2031 versus 2036 · Uganda

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 55.3% of the population (2024) to between 66% and 76% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 70% — a rise of 14.9 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 17.8 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 5.2 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 8.9% of the population (2024) to between 11% and 13% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 11% — a rise of 2.5 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 52.9 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 6.1 million more than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $1,249 to $1,481 by 2031. The $232 between them is under a quarter of today's $1,206.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 59.7 million — roughly 8.3 million more people than in 2025, about 34 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 55.3% of the population (2024) to between 72% and 84% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 78% — a rise of 22.3 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 14.9 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 8.1 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 8.9% of the population (2024) to between 12% and 15% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 13% — a rise of 4.1 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 57.9 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 11.1 million more than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $1,286 to $1,757 by 2036. The $471 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $1,206.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 66.6 million — roughly 15.2 million more people than in 2025, about 39.4 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 3.5% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 6.5% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Uganda

Education & workforce capability

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Gross tertiary enrolment was 4.6% in 2014, with adult literacy at 77% (2024). A state cannot regulate, procure, audit or localise technologies it has too few people trained to understand. This constrains AI governance, energy planning and public administration simultaneously, and it takes a decade to change — which is exactly this platform's horizon.

Why the band cannot contain it

Human capital compounds on a decade lag. The tertiary enrolment rate today sets the ceiling on what the state can regulate and what firms can build in 2036, and no growth average encodes that.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A sustained collapse or expansion in enrolment, or large-scale emigration of trained professionals.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Uganda

6 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Uganda. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

2 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

4 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Uganda · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels