5 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the
scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence
was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.
Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they
are inside the frame rather than under it.
Country outlook · Southern Africa
South Africa
Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply
knowledge nobody has.
| Measure | Latest observed | 2031 | 2036 |
|---|
| Output per person |
$6,598 2025 |
$5,770 – $7,309 | $5,160 – $7,959 |
| Electricity access |
90% 2024 |
92% – 93% | 93% – 95% |
| Internet use |
78% 2024 |
85% – 91% | 88% – 94% |
Growth bands: -2.21% · -0.24% · 1.72% a year per person,
from South Africa's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations,
clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.
Who this outlook leaves out
- Educated young people whose qualifications do not convert into work
- Irrigating farmers and cities drawing on the same stressed sources
- Grid customers competing with data centre load for the same power
2031 versus 2036 · South Africa
Two horizons, asked the same question
By 2031
- Household electricity access moves from 90.2% of the population (2024) to between 92% and 93% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 92% — a rise of 2.2 percentage points.
- In people rather than percentages: about 5.2 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 1.1 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
- Internet use moves from 78.4% of the population (2024) to between 85% and 91% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 88% — a rise of 9.2 percentage points.
- In people rather than percentages: about 8.5 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 5.5 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
- Output per person spans $5,770 to $7,309 by 2031. The $1,539 between them is under a quarter of today's $6,598.
- That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
- The population reaches about 68.8 million — roughly 4.1 million more people than in 2025, about 46.1 million of them of working age.
- This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.
By 2036
- Household electricity access moves from 90.2% of the population (2024) to between 93% and 95% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 94% — a rise of 3.5 percentage points.
- In people rather than percentages: about 4.5 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 1.8 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
- Internet use moves from 78.4% of the population (2024) to between 88% and 94% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 91% — a rise of 13 percentage points.
- In people rather than percentages: about 6.2 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 7.8 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
- Output per person spans $5,160 to $7,959 by 2036. The $2,799 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $6,598.
- That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
- The population reaches about 71.8 million — roughly 7.1 million more people than in 2025, about 48.5 million of them of working age.
- This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.
What has to happen first
- Cape Town approved two hyperscale data centres drawing around 174 MW combined once fully operational. Recorded as approved: it still has to reach financial close before it counts as capacity.
- South Africa’s 2026 Budget Review projects gross government debt stabilising at 78.9% of GDP in 2025/26 and declining to 76.5%…. Recorded as approved: it still has to be funded and staffed before it counts as a change in how things work.
- The Nvidia–Cassava GPU programme has announced planned expansion beyond South Africa to Egypt, Nigeria, Kenya and Morocco. Recorded as announced: it still has to be enacted or formally adopted before it counts as a change in how things work.
What the growth model cannot see · South Africa
Sovereign debt & fiscal distress
Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.
Central government debt was 83% of GDP in 2024, against revenue of 29%. At this ratio debt service competes directly with schools, clinics and salaries, and refinancing terms — set abroad — become a domestic policy constraint.
Why the band cannot contain it
A default is a discontinuity. Trailing variance cannot contain an event that has not yet occurred, and debt service crowds out the spending that produces future growth long before any default.
What would invalidate the modelled bandA missed sovereign payment, a disorderly restructuring, or loss of market access. None of these appear in a trailing growth average until after the fact.
Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not
publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.
AI evidence state · South Africa
13 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement
1 dimension has not been examined at all —
which is a statement about this platform's research, not about South Africa.
There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states
would manufacture a number nobody measured.
5
Measured
A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.
8
Documented
A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.
3
Inferred
Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.
3
Not evident
Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.
1
Unexamined
This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.
Creative & cultural intelligence · South Africa
Cross-sector / whole creative economy
Measured as Cultural, creative AND sports industries measured together. Wider than the creative economy alone; the figure is not comparable with creative-only estimates.
A satellite account built for South Africa’s cultural, creative and sports industries and embedded in a social accounting matrix estimated their combined 2021 impact at R250 billion, or 4.3% of GDP, sustaining 1,125,866 jobs — 7.6% of total employment — on a direct, indirect and induced basis.
Limits of this figureSport is measured inside this figure. It is therefore NOT comparable with creative-only estimates, including SACO’s own earlier mapping work, which put the cultural and creative industries alone at R74.39 billion or 1.7% of GDP in 2018 and at about 3% of GDP in later commentary. Indirect and induced effects are modelled, not observed, and are not additive with other sectors’ impact studies. The reference year is 2021, a COVID-affected year.
Creative-economy figures are the most definition-sensitive numbers on this platform: the same
country measured under a different frame can differ by a factor of three. Continental totals are
held separately and are never attached to a country.
Source: The Cultural and Creative sector contributes billions of Rand to the economy of South Africa, says Cultural Observatory in latest report — CityLife Arts, reporting the South African Cultural Observatory macroeconomic impact assessment,
2026-03 · secondary · verified 2026-07-25